What Happened
Winter Storm Fern brought heavy snow, ice, and sustained winds across the Midwest, Great Lakes, and Northeast from February 22 to 26. Interstate closures across Indiana, Ohio, and Pennsylvania halted freight movement for 24 to 48 hours in the hardest-hit areas. The storm coincided with a freight market that was already tightening due to the FMCSA CDL changes and elevated demand from tariff-driven inventory builds. The combination amplified the disruption well beyond what the storm alone would have caused.
Rejection Rates and Spot Rates
Tender rejection rates — the percentage of loads that carriers refuse from shippers — spiked to 12 to 15% nationally during the storm, compared to a pre-storm average of 6 to 7%. In the Midwest, rejections exceeded 20%. When carriers reject loads, those loads move to the spot market where rates are higher. DAT national average spot rates jumped $0.18 per mile during the storm week and have only partially receded. On storm-affected lanes (Chicago to Northeast, Midwest to Southeast), spot rates remain $0.10 to $0.15 above pre-storm levels.
Why This Storm Hit Harder
Weather disruptions are normal in winter freight markets. What made Storm Fern different was the market context. The Florida Atlantic University (FAU) Trucking Conditions Index hit a 4-year high entering March 2026, indicating the tightest capacity since early 2022. The Bureau of Labor Statistics transportation price index reached 80.9 — its highest reading since March 2022. In a loose market, storms cause temporary disruption that resolves within days. In a tight market, storms create cascading delays: backed-up loads compete for limited capacity, rejection rates stay elevated, and it takes weeks for the network to rebalance.
Intermodal as a Hedge
One mode that performed relatively well during Storm Fern was intermodal rail. While truck movements were halted by road closures, rail service experienced delays but continued operating on most corridors. Shippers with intermodal freight experienced 12 to 24 hour delays, compared to 48+ hour delays for truck freight on the same lanes. This is not always the case — rail is susceptible to its own weather disruptions — but for shippers who use intermodal for a portion of their Midwest lanes, it provided resilience during the storm.
What to Expect in Q2 2026
The combination of post-storm network rebalancing, FMCSA regulatory tightening, elevated diesel costs, and tariff-driven demand creates a challenging freight environment for Q2 2026. Expect rates to remain firm — particularly on Midwest and Northeast lanes. Tender lead times should be extended: loads that you could book 24 hours out in Q4 2025 may now require 48 to 72 hours of notice. Carriers have pricing power in this environment, which means shippers should prioritize reliable capacity over lowest cost.
How to Protect Your Freight
Plan further ahead. Provide carriers with 48 to 72 hours of notice on loads when possible — carriers prioritize shippers with longer lead times. Maintain relationships with your core carrier base through consistent volume and fair rates — in tight markets, carriers haul for the shippers who treat them well year-round, not just when capacity is abundant. Consider diversifying your mode mix: adding intermodal rail on lanes where transit time allows gives you a backup when truck capacity tightens. And keep communication lines open with your logistics partner — early warning of disruptions allows proactive rerouting before capacity disappears.
Celsius Connect monitors weather disruptions and proactively communicates with our shippers and carriers. When conditions change, we adapt your freight plan.